Where have the last three years gone?
Justin Trudeau has been prime minister since October 2015, and we鈥檙e now just over a year away from the next federal election.
We鈥檇 like to say the son of Pierre Trudeau has been a success as prime minister. After all, Canada needs to have a strong leader at the helm of the country, someone who is strong at forging and maintaining relationships, representing the country on the international stage, creating and developing legislation, and budgeting the country鈥檚 finances.
We would be lying if we praised him on many of those fronts.
Trudeau: The Sequel certainly has his strong points. But we鈥檝e also seen he can鈥檛 balance a budget, he鈥檚 weak when it comes to legislation, and he has been, at times, an embarrassment on the international stage.
Remember three years ago when he proclaimed 鈥淐anada is back鈥� during a climate conference in Paris? We鈥檙e not sure if 鈥淐anada is back鈥� included billion-dollar deficits and an embarrassing foreign trip to India. We hope that鈥檚 not how The Sequel defines our country.
We鈥檝e seen him completely botch the energy file through his handling of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion. We watched him unnecessarily target small businesses with changes to the tax structure. We saw him give $10 million to Omar Khadr. And we鈥檙e watching him try to ramrod a carbon tax down the throats of provinces, even though the provinces have a much better grasp of how to address climate than he does.
Three years ago, Trudeau looked to be a long-term choice as prime minister. He ran a fantastic campaign to pull away and win a strong majority in what was, at one time, a tight three-horse race. But now it appears he will be in a battle to get a minority government in the next election.
He鈥檚 going to need a strong final year, and we鈥檙e not sure if he can do it.
The opposition Conservative government suddenly finds itself in a position that many didn鈥檛 expect even 18 months ago: they have a shot at winning the next federal election. They鈥檙e likely still the underdogs, but that doesn鈥檛 mean they鈥檒l be the underdogs in a year.
Federal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has to up his game. He not only has to appeal to the Conservative base, but he has to find a way to appeal to the independent and undecided voters who might not be sold on him.
And he has to be wary of the new People鈥檚 Party of Canada, founded by former Tory leadership foe Maxime Bernier. It鈥檚 unlikely that Bernier鈥檚 party will take a big bite out of Scheer鈥檚 support across the country in the next election, but Bernier鈥檚 party could do a lot of damage if it cuts into the Tory support in key battleground ridings.
Scheer also has to continue to distance his party from hard right wing voters, even if it means those voters turn to Bernier鈥檚 party.
As for the federal New Democratic Party (NDP), they鈥檙e back to being the federal NDP: a respectable third party that gets around 20 per cent of the vote, and collects a few dozen seats across the country.
Jagmeet Singh had a lot of hype and promise when he became the NDP leader. He鈥檚 undeniably talented and charismatic. But at times, it seems like he鈥檚 in over his head. He鈥檚 only running for a seat in the House of Commons now. He鈥檒l likely win that by-election, but he should have been in the House of Commons long ago so he could give his party a voice while standing up to the federal Liberals.
The NDP has often teetered on irrelevant during the past 12 months, and it鈥檚 largely because they have a leader without a presence.
There鈥檚 still time for the NDP to regroup, but those who have been hoping for the party to regain its results from the 2011 federal election will be disappointed.
At the same time, we鈥檒l have to watch and see whether the NDP winds up taking away support from the Liberals in key urban ridings.
The derby to be the next prime minister of Canada is on.
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